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Wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Fachbereich - Jahrgang 2009


Titel Learning in Macroeconomics
An Empirical Approach
Autor Simon Junker
Publikationsform Dissertation
Abstract This thesis explores the role of adaptive learning in explaining empirical phenomena such as the Great Inflation. We show that the historic monetary policy deviated from the optimally recommended policy under learning. These deviations are caused by Brainard-type uncertainty which induces a conservative policy stance. Accounting for both imperfect knowledge and estimation uncertainty, the optimal policy under adaptive learning is consistent with historic policy behavior. However, we show that an optimizing but informationally constrained policy maker would most likely have experienced a Great Inflation like episode. Furthermore, we develop an estimation method to implement the adaptive learning hypothesis into DSGE modelling, thus extending the standard estimation toolbox.
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© Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Bonn | Veröffentlicht: 23.04.2009